On Saturday 5 September 2026, Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis went to Thessaloniki for the opening of the Thessaloniki International Fair to set out the Government’s stall ahead of elections.  

Taking place every September, the event has become part of political preparations for elections, with speeches back in 2009 setting the tone for the parliamentary vote, while in 2014 Syriza presented its full economic programme in Thessaloniki. 

Keeping this tradition, Mr Mitsotakis presented the Government’s economic agenda for 2027 and the medium-term, which, as expected, will amount to a bit more than €2 billion in fiscal measures for the next year. They include zero taxation of farmers with income below €20,000, the reduction of the advance tax payment from 55% to 50%, the introduction of a Christmas “present” for public sector employees, the preparation of specific housing promotion programmes, and a new government-subsidised bank account for children.

Greece will hold elections in the coming months, though rumours before the summer suggested Mr Mitsotakis would announce early elections for October 2026, which now seems impossible. The measures introduced in this speech will be enforced gradually, with some put in place in November, and most set to materialise after March 2027. 

Could the Greek Presidency fall into the trap of the Spanish one?

Greece will take over the EU Council Presidency on 1 July 2027, and it will be responsible primarily for the closing of any unfinished business around the 2028-2034 Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF). Based on the commitments made in the One Europe, One Market Roadmap, Greece will have to deal with negotiations on the banking package, the two omnibuses on taxation and energy products, the Public Procurement Act, and files on circular economy and labour mobility.

On the digital front, a strategic EU priority, the Greek Presidency could potentially close discussions on the Digital Omnibus and play a key role in the Digital Networks Act, the Cloud and AI Development Act, and the Quantum Act. The Greek Presidency will also be responsible for two upcoming proposals regarding the setting up of the energy efficiency framework and the renewable energy framework.

Elections in Greece can happen no later than June 2027, and based on current polling, the Government is not only short of a parliamentary majority, but there are concerns Mr Mitsotakis’s party will not secure the necessary 25% to get the election bonus, which can provide a maximum of 50 more seats to the leading party. The Prime Minister has been vocal in the past that elections will take place in spring 2027, and with Greek Easter expected on 2 May 2027, two dates are being discussed: 25 April and 9 May.  

Greece is not like Belgium or Germany, where negotiations to form a government could last for weeks or months. In Greece, the party that comes first is asked to form a government within two days of the election. If it fails, and the second- and third-placed parties also fail, fresh elections are announced within a week. 

Current projections show Mr Mitsotakis’s party will not be able to secure a majority in the first vote; although there could be potential coalition partners, either through an ECR-affiliated party (Elliniki Lysi) or an S&D-affiliated party (PASOK), they would be reluctant to agree to a coalition after the first vote.

Greece looks set for a double election next year, to say the least, and if the first round occurs at the end of April or the beginning of May, the second election would be just before the Presidency gets under way. In the event the Government fails to secure a majority in the first round, this could create pressure on smaller parties to accept a role in a coalition and although Mr Mitsotakis has expressed willingness to govern with PASOK, the fact that PASOK’s President was attacked by malicious spyware orchestrated by Mr Mitsotakis casts doubt on hopes of the pair forming a coalition.

More pressure could be created if Mr Mitsotakis chooses to hold the first election in June. While prior to his speech in Thessaloniki this idea seemed off the table, it now seems like an alternative possibility. If it becomes a reality, Greece could risk following Spain in 2023, which held general elections shortly after receiving the Presidency.

Is this the battle of the three Prime Ministers?

The fundamental difference between Greece’s political landscape today and that of Spain in 2023 is that we now face an extremely fragmented political environment. There is little doubt that Mr Mitsotakis is the dominant figure in Greek politics, but he has lost the support of hundreds of thousands of Greek citizens, either because of his liberal agenda, creating gains for the far right, or through constant corruption scandals and failed economic policies, creating broader dissatisfaction in the political centre.

Greek journalists reported that the Prime Minister’s arrival in Thessaloniki was marked by the most active demonstrations of the last five years. Meanwhile, economic scandals around EU funding and the bumpy relationship with the European Public Prosecutor’s Office (EPPO) investigations have led to negative sentiment in Mr Mitsotakis’ rural strongholds.

Dissatisfaction with Mr Mitsotakis could lead to two potential main opposition parties. First, former Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has returned to the public eye with a new party called ELAS (Greek Left Coalition) and a more centre-left political agenda. Current estimates suggest Tsipras’s party will safely come in second place, and he also went to Thessaloniki before Mitsotakis to present his programme for a fairer social economy. Despite his rise from the “backbenches” and a new political programme, his party has, in most cases, barely surpassed 15%.

The other figure that could create a bigger loss for Mr Mitsotakis is another former Prime Minister, Mr Antonis Samaras, who led Mitsotakis’s party until 2015. Although Mr Samaras has not yet officially announced the creation of a political party, he has been in clear opposition to Mr Mitsotakis for some years now, and has referred to him as the Prime Minister of corruption and poverty. If Mr Samaras does establish a new party, it could create significant losses for Mr Mitsotakis, especially in the first elections. At the same time, ministers close to him have opened discussions about a potential coalition with Mr Samaras.

Greece is already planning its Presidency, and the country’s Permanent Representation has offered more than 50 openings starting in the coming months. The effectiveness of the fiscal measures announced in Thessaloniki, the political landscape in Greece, and geopolitical tensions would be crucial for the timing of the elections in Greece. Undoubtedly, they will be marked by three potential Prime Ministers and will keep Brussels up at night, wondering what the Government will look like on 1 July 2027. 

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Cover image source used: Naftemporiki