Otilia Dhand is a Director at Temasek. Here, she talks to us about how her upbringing in Central and Eastern Europe has shaped her career journey, building confidence to make tough decisions, and her inspirations.

The views expressed in this interview are solely those of the interviewee and do not reflect the views or positions of the company she works for.

Can you tell us more about your career journey?

My career journey has been quite varied; I began in academia, doing some consulting on the side. I earned a PhD in the history of Central Europe, focusing on the development of this geographic area from the mid-19th century to the present. While this might seem like an esoteric topic, it actually involves understanding the politics and definitions of space and international structures— a knowledge that prepared me well for my next step.

I transitioned into forecasting political events in Central and Eastern Europe, spending over a decade as a political risk forecaster for the region. This work was based in London until I moved to Brussels in 2015. There, my focus expanded to European politics. I began covering topics requiring a forecasting mindset, such as artificial intelligence, semiconductors, energy policy, and geopolitics, particularly concerning EU relations with the US, Russia and China. This shift gradually moved me from a forecasting role to one in public affairs.

About a year ago, I joined Temasek in an institutional relations and public affairs function. My role involves explaining Temasek to European institutions, elucidating European institutions to my colleagues at Temasek, and clarifying European policies to colleagues worldwide whose investments are affected by EU regulatory changes. While geopolitics still plays a part in my work, it is not the core focus of my current role.

Youth political activism has shaped a part of your life. How did the political situation in your country impact your thinking and political engagement?

That’s a question that goes to the heart of why I chose to study politics in the first place. I was born in the early 1980s in what was then Soviet-occupied Czechoslovakia. My career path was shaped by my experiences during the revolution in 1989. Childhood memories of standing in the main square with my parents and neighbours, anticipating and welcoming political change, left an impression on me. Observing the successes and failures of the political transformations in the 1990s strengthened my interest in politics and governance.

The 1990s were particularly eventful in newly independent Slovakia. At one point, the country almost lost its ambition to join the EU and NATO; it was the young people of Slovakia who steered the nation back on the path toward membership in these institutions. As a teenager and young activist, I worked to persuade my fellow citizens that the EU and NATO were vital for Slovakia’s future. When I turned 18, I continued my political activism by joining the centre-right youth organisation called Civic Democratic Youth. This involvement led me to Brussels for the first time in the early 2000s, where I co-chaired policy groups on EU integration and student mobility for the European People’s Party’s youth organisation, European Democrat Students.

Choosing to study politics and international relations was a natural progression. During university, I sometimes missed lectures because I was busy organising a campaign aimed at informing young people about Slovakia’s ambition to join the North Atlantic Alliance. This project involved university students educating high school students about NATO’s functions and significance. We organised a model NATO session that simulated the membership decisions for candidate countries, which was a great success. We even created a documentary in Slovak and English, which was presented at the NATO summit in Prague in 2002.

This project inspired me to pursue a master’s degree in geopolitics at Oxford, focusing on Eastern Europe, and later a PhD on the definitions of space in Central Europe. My early exposure to political change and my active participation in shaping my country’s future set the stage for my career. I now work to help businesses understand political dynamics and advise decision-makers on how politics can influence the business environment.

Did you face any challenges transitioning from academia and research to a public affairs role?

The biggest challenge for me has always been the change itself. Despite all the changes I have made in my career, none of them were easy, and given a choice, I would probably have preferred to stick with the status quo at the time!

Adapting my skills was another significant hurdle. Transitioning from academia to forecasting involves a similar skill set, but the focus is different. In academia, you deal with the past—something well-documented, allowing you to draw conclusions based on evidence. In forecasting, you’re dealing with incomplete information about current events, and you don’t have six months to write a paper; you might only have six hours.

Shifting from forecasting to public affairs presented new challenges, particularly in stakeholder engagement. As an analyst, I was used to working independently, piecing information together, and making forecasts. Public affairs, however, requires actively engaging with stakeholders, which was a completely new skill for me.

I feel established in my public affairs role now, though there are always new things to learn. Currently, we’re in a transition period between one European Commission and the next, which involves figuring out how policies are likely to be shaped and what changes we can expect. These ongoing developments are what make the job exciting.

How can a professional navigate decision-making in a context with imperfect information (which is often the case)?

By definition, when dealing with current events rather than past ones, you’re always working with incomplete information. Some would argue that even in historical research, you’re dealing with incomplete information because you have to piece together history from archival records, which are inherently incomplete, and you can’t track what people were thinking unless they wrote it down, and even then, you have to trust their accounts.

In the context of current affairs, you can only do your best with the information available. When forecasting political developments, you’re predicting decisions that people are about to make. The key is to gather information on the system, the people involved, and the options ahead of them. Sometimes, even if a situation seems to be developing in a certain direction, knowing the system can help you predict if it will divert unexpectedly.

Inevitably, from time to time, your predictions will be wrong. The biggest challenge in forecasting is ensuring that when things do go wrong, you analyse why they didn’t go as predicted. Learning from these mistakes allows you to make your next prediction with equal confidence but better experience.

How can someone build the confidence needed to make tough decisions? Is it harder to be right or to be wrong?

Building confidence in making tough decisions comes with experience. As a junior analyst, you might seek input from several colleagues to ensure you’re on the right track. However, as you progress in your career, you become more confident in making decisions independently. This confidence often stems from having made mistakes in the past and learning from them, as well as developing a reliable methodology over time.

Political risk forecasting is still developing robust methodologies, but the availability of near real-time data from public sources is helping. Unlike mathematics or physics, where methodologies are well established, political forecasting relies on tools to track public sentiment and predict political leaders’ actions. Despite this, unforeseen circumstances can still lead to incorrect predictions. For example, you might forecast a major protest that turns violent, but unexpected rain could disperse the crowd early, resulting in a different outcome.

Understanding that predictions can be affected by unforeseen events allows you to present information with allowances and caveats. This helps consumers of the forecast understand that some circumstances may intervene.

There are several methodologies that can be used: in conditions of uncertainty, one can rely on outlining scenarios. For instance, you might estimate that there is a 60% chance of one outcome, a 30% chance of another, and a 10% chance of various other possibilities. When situations develop rapidly, creating a decision tree can be an effective strategy: this involves identifying potential events, their outcomes, and guiding people through the situation without needing constant updates.

For example, in my previous role, we used a decision tree to forecast developments during the 2014 protests in Ukraine. We predicted that in case of use of force or the protests turning violent, it was more likely the government would fall. If the situation remained peaceful, the government was more likely to stay in power. This method helped convey the changing probabilities of different outcomes, aiding in making informed decisions as the situation evolved.

Do you think a successful career is a result of fate, talent, or a combination of both?

I believe it’s a combination of both. They say that luck happens when opportunity meets preparation. I’ve known brilliant analysts around Europe whose careers were stunted early on due to a lack of available opportunities. These individuals often had to choose different career paths simply to pay the bills. Conversely, there are those who had a lucky break but didn’t necessarily have the skills to capitalise on it, leading them to move on to other jobs.

Success also requires a lot of patience. You need to be ready to seize opportunities when they arise, which means continuously preparing and honing your skills while waiting for that lucky break.

What is the achievement you are most proud of, and what is your biggest regret, if you have one?

My biggest achievement is probably the book I wrote: The Idea of Central Europe: Geopolitics, Culture and Regional Identity. It took me seven years to complete. One of my colleagues humorously remarked, “This is brilliant, but when are you going to write a book that actually sells?”. In fact, I didn’t write it for commercial success, it was a deep inquiry into the nature of the region where I was born and had spent significant time working as an analyst. The book opened up numerous opportunities, including serving on the high-level advisory group to Commissioner Gentiloni, which stemmed directly from a presentation of my book.

I also received unexpected praise from unusual quarters; for instance, a review in the Czech Republic coming from a political activist and writer from a completely different political camp than mine called it the best book written on Central Europe since the end of the Cold War. Earning such praise from those you don’t necessarily agree with is a remarkable success for me.

As for regrets, my biggest ones are the things I failed to accomplish despite my best intentions. There have been a few projects and goals that I couldn’t bring to fruition, and those missed opportunities weigh on me.

What advice would you give to your younger self?

The most important lesson I learned in my MBA was about organisational design, specifically understanding dominant coalitions within any organisation. Every organisation has a hierarchical structure, sometimes not strictly a pyramid, but always with some form of hierarchy.

Your quickest path to career advancement is to position yourself close to the people creating core value for the organisation. In businesses, this means aligning with those responsible for generating revenue. Being close to the dominant coalition—those key decision-makers and influencers—accelerates your career. This principle seems to hold true everywhere I look.

Since learning this, I’ve focused on staying attuned to shifts in these coalitions and their evolving needs. This has been a significant challenge but also a rewarding aspect of my recent professional engagements. Understanding and navigating these dynamics is invaluable for career growth.

Can you recognise a colleague who has been particularly inspirational to you?

This question has been the most challenging one you’ve asked in this interview because I’ve been fortunate to work with many inspirational people throughout my career. However, if I had to choose one, it would be difficult. What I’ve realised is that the most inspirational figures for me have been the teams I’ve had the privilege to work with. Often, it’s the younger colleagues who bring incredible drive, motivation, and passion to their work. Their energy and dedication inspire me to ensure our collective success.

Thinking about early influences in my career, one person stands out: Kevin Kajiwara. I remember making my first major forecast call in early 2012 regarding a vote of no confidence in the Romanian parliament, and unfortunately, I got it completely wrong. As it became apparent that my prediction was off, Kevin called me from New York to discuss how I was feeling about it. I expressed my disappointment, and he responded with invaluable advice: “Don’t worry. Pick up the phone, call the clients, explain what happened, assure them that we’re monitoring the situation, and keep them updated.”

Kevin’s guidance on handling setbacks, even small but significant ones, was incredibly supportive. His willingness to stand by me during a challenging moment left a lasting impression on how I approach failures and setbacks in my career.

Do you consider yourself successful in balancing work and life? If so, what are your tips?

I believe I’ve managed to strike a good balance between my work life, family life, and occasional volunteering commitments. The key, I think, is recognising what’s feasible at different times—sometimes pushing harder in your career, other times prioritising your family because it feels right.

Achieving balance isn’t about a strict 50-50 split every day. It’s more about understanding the rhythm and pace of your personal and professional life and knowing when to focus on each.

Also, learning to say no is crucial in maintaining this balance. Saying no allows you to prioritise what matters most at any given moment, whether it’s spending quality time with family, advancing in your career, or contributing through volunteering. Ultimately, balance comes from being intentional about where you invest your time and energy, ensuring that both work and personal life enrich each other rather than compete for attention.

From identifying stakeholders and tracking legislation to measuring your results, DeHavilland OPP can help you with all your public affairs needs. Get in touch to find out more.